From the National Hurricane Center (Public Advisory 13A):
000 WTNT34 KNHC 092344 TCPAT4 BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
…MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST… SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…26.6N 86.5W ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 235 MI…375 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…953 MB…28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.mb (millibars)
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael’s eye is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected overnight and on Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to be near category 4 strength when it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL…9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL…6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL…6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL…4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL…2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch area by late Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday…
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.
The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia…3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast…1-3 inches.
Western Cuba…An additional 1 to 2 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$ Forecaster Stewart